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economic

April 21, 2022

Inflation-linked bonds are a key defence in a world of deepening negative real yields, says Jasmine Yeo, investment manager at Ruffer LLP.

What was the real return on the US ten-year bond over the past two years? Flat? Down a little?

Wrong – down a lot. The bedrock of the balanced portfolio has delivered a real return of -20% over the past two years [1].

That’s the worst inflation-adjusted performance since 1981 [2].

Traditional balanced portfolios rely on equities and bonds fulfilling their roles – equities for good times, bonds to cushion the bad. But after a torrid three months for markets, investors are being forced to tear up the rulebook.

April 7, 2022

Events in Ukraine are to be seen, first, through the lens of humanity. Through the lens of finance, Russia’s invasion is having the same effect as Covid-19: it is accelerating trends which are already in place. And those trends are inflationary says Ruffer LLP chairman Jonathan Ruffer.

Events in Ukraine are to be seen, first, through the lens of humanity. Through the lens of finance, Russia’s invasion is having the same effect as Covid-19: it is accelerating trends which are already in place. And those trends are inflationary.

September 28, 2021

In a post-pandemic world, many new opportunities and challenges lie ahead for family-owned businesses and business families.

In a post-pandemic world, many new opportunities and challenges lie ahead for family-owned businesses and business families.

September 13, 2021

Reassuring women that their place in the family business is permanent is “absolutely essential” to empower women to become successors, next-gen family business leader and author Priyanka Gupta Zielinski says.

Reassuring women that their place in the family business is permanent is “absolutely essential” to empower women to become successors, next-gen family business leader and author Priyanka Gupta Zielinski says.

August 10, 2021

Is the global economy’s uneven recovery leading to more opportunities for equity managers? The answer: Yes, according to our latest quarterly report on equity managers.

Is the global economy’s uneven recovery leading to more opportunities for equity managers? The answer: Yes, according to our latest quarterly report on equity managers.

June 30, 2021

The global economic reopening remains on track as Covid-19 vaccination rates climb. While rising inflation has become a concern, the spike in prices looks transitory so far. Ultimately, we still like the pandemic recovery trade that favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks. 

The global economic reopening remains on track as Covid-19 vaccination rates climb. While rising inflation has become a concern, the spike in prices looks transitory so far. Ultimately, we still like the pandemic recovery trade that favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks. 

Key market themes

May 24, 2021

Heineken brews acquisition of South Africa’s Distell Group, Berlusconi family's Fininvest exits Mediobanca, Nathan Cummings Foundation calls for racial equality in impact investing.

Heineken brews acquisition of South Africa’s Distell Group

Family-owned Heineken, the world’s second-largest brewer, could buy a majority share of a unique $1.8 billion South African wine and spirits company, making the deal its second acquisition in 2021.

The fourth-generation Dutch beer maker confirmed last week it is in talks with Distell Group Holdings over a “potential transaction”. The $23.7 billion brewer added discussions were ongoing and there was no certainty an agreement would be reached.

February 20, 2021

William Clay Ford Jr, the family principal behind the motor giant’s electrification, Record revenue accelerates Walton family’s Walmart strategy, Sheldon Adelson heirs unlikely to gamble on his casino empire’s future.

William Clay Ford Jr, the family principal behind the motor giant’s electrification

The $1 billion electric vehicle transformation by the Ford Motor Company in Europe is a vindication for its fourth-generation executive chairman, William Clay Ford Jr, a lifelong environmentalist.

The $155.9 billion family-controlled automaker announced this week all of its passenger and commercial vehicle ranges in Europe will be zero-emissions capable—all-electric or plug-in hybrid—by 2026, moving to entirely electric by 2030.

December 10, 2020

We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold.

We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold.

With the world in the early post-recession recovery phase of the business cycle, our medium-term outlook for economies and corporate earnings is positive. We believe that 2021 will feature an extended period of low-inflation, low-interest rate growth that favours equities over bonds.

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