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May 5, 2022

Globally, inflation is likely to be higher and more volatile. Inflation risk, an absent adversary throughout the careers of most investors today, will need to be priced once again, says Ruffer LLP’s Jamie Dannhauser.

In the late 1970s, the world was on the cusp of radical change. The ‘Deflation Machine’ was being born. Deng Xiaoping, having outmanoeuvred Mao Zedong’s preferred successor, began the process of reforming China’s moribund economy. In the West, liberal, free-market ideals were gaining traction, ideals that underpinned the subsequent regime of rapid, disinflationary global growth.

March 17, 2022

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards.

In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless.

March 3, 2022

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic says Ruffer’s chief investment officer Henry Maxey.

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic.

“Inflation is the endgame. Just brace for inflation volatility first.”

This was the punchline of my 2021 Ruffer Review article.

October 1, 2021

In the world of investment, there are few things everyone can agree on. You’re either a bull or a bear, a dove or a hawk, for or against.

In the world of investment, there are few things everyone can agree on. You’re either a bull or a bear, a dove or a hawk, for or against.

If there’s one thing investors do know for sure—it’s that bonds and equities can be used in combination to achieve a ‘balanced portfolio’.

At the simplest level, this means building portfolios with some equities for the good times, and bonds for the bad. Typically, in a 60/40 split.

April 28, 2021

Inflation is in the news again. Many prices are rising even before we can physically get out and spend, and governments are pouring vast amounts into the economy.

Inflation is in the news again. Many prices are rising even before we can physically get out and spend, and governments are pouring vast amounts into the economy.

Whichever side of the inflation debate you are on, it makes sense to assess the impact inflation could have on portfolios. Most of today’s investors have never seen meaningful inflation in the whole of their professional careers. So, as we emerge from lockdowns and pent-up demand meets ongoing supply constraints, we consider how different asset classes might fare if inflation does return.

April 27, 2021

The whole ‘death of the office’ shtick has been subject to many articles over the last six months, but this is not one of them. It is, however, about how offices remain an investable asset, how the perception of offices is changing and why family offices should be looking to acquire them sooner rather than later.

The whole ‘death of the office’ shtick has been subject to many articles over the last six months, but this is not one of them. It is, however, about how offices remain an investable asset, how the perception of offices is changing and why family offices should be looking to acquire them sooner rather than later.

Currently, there is a unique window of opportunity, particularly in the regions, as a large chunk of the institutional and fund investor population is currently sitting on the side-lines.

April 21, 2021

In lockdown, I have been watching the blockbuster Deutschland 89. There’s a moment in the hours before the fall of the Berlin Wall when the top-dog commissar considers whether to shoot himself—but a little piece of hemp consoles him with the thought that times of change are times of opportunity, times that bring up new winners.

In lockdown, I have been watching the blockbuster Deutschland 89. There’s a moment in the hours before the fall of the Berlin Wall when the top-dog commissar considers whether to shoot himself—but a little piece of hemp consoles him with the thought that times of change are times of opportunity, times that bring up new winners.

March 31, 2021

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

Investors’ great fear

February 5, 2021

Statistics from the UK government’s tax office show the amount of Inheritance Tax (IHT) families are paying has soared from £2.9 billion ($3.9 billion) in 2011-12 to £5.2 billion ($7.1 billion) in 2019-20—this in part reflects the rise in asset values since 2008, and in particular skyrocketing property prices in London and the south-east of England.

Statistics from the UK government’s tax office show the amount of Inheritance Tax (IHT) families are paying has soared from £2.9 billion ($3.9 billion) in 2011-12 to £5.2 billion ($7.1 billion) in 2019-20—this in part reflects the rise in asset values since 2008, and in particular skyrocketing property prices in London and the south-east of England.

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