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Ruffer LLP

May 5, 2022

Globally, inflation is likely to be higher and more volatile. Inflation risk, an absent adversary throughout the careers of most investors today, will need to be priced once again, says Ruffer LLP’s Jamie Dannhauser.

In the late 1970s, the world was on the cusp of radical change. The ‘Deflation Machine’ was being born. Deng Xiaoping, having outmanoeuvred Mao Zedong’s preferred successor, began the process of reforming China’s moribund economy. In the West, liberal, free-market ideals were gaining traction, ideals that underpinned the subsequent regime of rapid, disinflationary global growth.

April 21, 2022

Inflation-linked bonds are a key defence in a world of deepening negative real yields, says Jasmine Yeo, investment manager at Ruffer LLP.

What was the real return on the US ten-year bond over the past two years? Flat? Down a little?

Wrong – down a lot. The bedrock of the balanced portfolio has delivered a real return of -20% over the past two years [1].

That’s the worst inflation-adjusted performance since 1981 [2].

Traditional balanced portfolios rely on equities and bonds fulfilling their roles – equities for good times, bonds to cushion the bad. But after a torrid three months for markets, investors are being forced to tear up the rulebook.

April 7, 2022

Events in Ukraine are to be seen, first, through the lens of humanity. Through the lens of finance, Russia’s invasion is having the same effect as Covid-19: it is accelerating trends which are already in place. And those trends are inflationary says Ruffer LLP chairman Jonathan Ruffer.

Events in Ukraine are to be seen, first, through the lens of humanity. Through the lens of finance, Russia’s invasion is having the same effect as Covid-19: it is accelerating trends which are already in place. And those trends are inflationary.

March 17, 2022

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards.

In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless.

March 3, 2022

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic says Ruffer’s chief investment officer Henry Maxey.

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic.

“Inflation is the endgame. Just brace for inflation volatility first.”

This was the punchline of my 2021 Ruffer Review article.

December 1, 2021

Investors have divided into two camps. Those who believe inflation will subside and the rise in prices will prove temporary. And others who fear we are entering a period of high sustained inflation reminiscent of the 1970s. We consider both scenarios unlikely.

Investors have divided into two camps. Those who believe inflation will subside and the rise in prices will prove temporary. And others who fear we are entering a period of high sustained inflation reminiscent of the 1970s. We consider both scenarios unlikely.

Overlay the bottom chart below and you would be forgiven for believing that we are now on the same trajectory as we were 50 years ago. There are parallels but to assume the economy will meet the same inflationary fate would be a grave mistake for investors.

September 21, 2021

What can they see that we can’t? Private equity bids for UK companies are soaring, while at the same time the UK stock market languishes at valuations well below US peers.

What can they see that we can’t? Private equity bids for UK companies are soaring, while at the same time the UK stock market languishes at valuations well below US peers.

Private equity bids for UK companies are soaring, while at the same time the UK stock market languishes at valuations well below US peers.

August 19, 2021

Floods in Europe, forest fires in North America and Australia—the impact and tragic results of climate change are starting to dominate the news.

Floods in Europe, forest fires in North America and Australia—the impact and tragic results of climate change are starting to dominate the news.

The actions taken by governments, companies and individuals in the next decade will be crucial if we are to limit the rise in global temperatures. The option of doing nothing has now passed, not just for the environment, but for companies and investors too.

August 3, 2021

Inflation is back, but for how long? Bertie Dannatt, investment director, joins Ruffer Radio to discuss how markets are digesting the return of inflation, and what rising prices mean for consumers and investors alike.

Inflation is back, but for how long?

Bertie Dannatt, investment director, joins Ruffer Radio to discuss how markets are digesting the return of inflation, and what rising prices mean for consumers and investors alike.

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