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April 28, 2021

Inflation is in the news again. Many prices are rising even before we can physically get out and spend, and governments are pouring vast amounts into the economy.

Inflation is in the news again. Many prices are rising even before we can physically get out and spend, and governments are pouring vast amounts into the economy.

Whichever side of the inflation debate you are on, it makes sense to assess the impact inflation could have on portfolios. Most of today’s investors have never seen meaningful inflation in the whole of their professional careers. So, as we emerge from lockdowns and pent-up demand meets ongoing supply constraints, we consider how different asset classes might fare if inflation does return.

April 27, 2021

The whole ‘death of the office’ shtick has been subject to many articles over the last six months, but this is not one of them. It is, however, about how offices remain an investable asset, how the perception of offices is changing and why family offices should be looking to acquire them sooner rather than later.

The whole ‘death of the office’ shtick has been subject to many articles over the last six months, but this is not one of them. It is, however, about how offices remain an investable asset, how the perception of offices is changing and why family offices should be looking to acquire them sooner rather than later.

Currently, there is a unique window of opportunity, particularly in the regions, as a large chunk of the institutional and fund investor population is currently sitting on the side-lines.

April 22, 2021

Dietmar Schmitt, a prolific international trader, says his new fund is ready to capitalise on Brexit and is calling for family investors.

Dietmar Schmitt, a prolific international trader, says his new fund is ready to capitalise on Brexit and is calling for family investors.

Schmitt is the founding chief executive and chief investment officer of SAM Capital Partners, an independent alternative investments firm, based in London.

March 31, 2021

Vaccines and US stimulus have the global economy on track for a strong rebound in the second half of the year. We expect the reopening trade to favour equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Vaccines and US stimulus have the global economy on track for a strong rebound in the second half of the year. We expect the reopening trade to favour equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Key market themes

February 15, 2021

While 2021 has started not unlike how much of 2020 played out, with Covid-19 infections continuing to spread and many countries reimplementing lockdown measures, the approval and rollout of various vaccines to combat the coronavirus has been an undeniable game-changer for markets. It's provided a clearer road map for a return to some form of normality, although the path ahead is still likely to remain bumpy, with continued uncertainties in the offing.

While 2021 has started not unlike how much of 2020 played out, with Covid-19 infections continuing to spread and many countries reimplementing lockdown measures, the approval and rollout of various vaccines to combat the coronavirus has been an undeniable game-changer for markets. It's provided a clearer road map for a return to some form of normality, although the path ahead is still likely to remain bumpy, with continued uncertainties in the offing.

January 7, 2021

Rajan Navani, the entrepreneurial principal of the diversified Navani family-owned JetLine Group of Companies, says trust and clear communication are essential to build bridges between family offices and venture capitalists.

Rajan Navani, the entrepreneurial principal of the diversified Navani family-owned JetLine Group of Companies, says trust and clear communication are essential to build bridges between family offices and venture capitalists.

Navani spoke with CampdenFB before his chairmanship of the Indian Family Office Meeting, hosted virtually by Campden Family Connect, on 19-21 January.

December 14, 2020

The 60/40 portfolio has served investors well for the past 50 years (1). It has been the allocation of choice for traditional balanced portfolios—60% in equities for the good times, 40% in bonds for the bad (and for the yield).

The 60/40 portfolio has served investors well for the past 50 years (1). It has been the allocation of choice for traditional balanced portfolios—60% in equities for the good times, 40% in bonds for the bad (and for the yield).

The past 50 years have been characterised by falling interest rates, low inflation and low volatility. A superb environment for both bonds and equities. But we may be entering a regime change which could see these conditions reverse.

December 10, 2020

We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold.

We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold.

With the world in the early post-recession recovery phase of the business cycle, our medium-term outlook for economies and corporate earnings is positive. We believe that 2021 will feature an extended period of low-inflation, low-interest rate growth that favours equities over bonds.

September 10, 2020

Could a vaccine change market leadership? When will enough doses of FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 25 million people be distributed in the US? The superforecasters of the Good Judgement Project believe there is a 93% probability we will have an FDA-approved vaccine in a year, and enough of it to inoculate 25 million people in the US. This is up from just 20% in the dark days of April.

Could a vaccine change market leadership? When will enough doses of FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 25 million people be distributed in the US? The superforecasters of the Good Judgement Project believe there is a 93% probability we will have an FDA-approved vaccine in a year, and enough of it to inoculate 25 million people in the US. This is up from just 20% in the dark days of April.

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