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July 19, 2022

Inflation oscillates: it’s an idea when it’s not about, and a defining feature when it is, says Ruffer LLP chairman Jonathan Ruffer.

Inflation oscillates: it’s an idea when it’s not about, and a defining feature when it is. The only other word which comes to mind with similar status is ‘war’. Irrelevant or inexorable – the human mind finds it hard to make a judgement between the two extremes.

July 15, 2022

It is hard to overstate how far free and unlimited central bank liquidity has rewired the financial system. As central bankers extract themselves from the monetary rabbit hole they have burrowed their way into, the damage to traditional portfolios is likely to be considerable, says Jamie Dannhauser of Ruffer LLP.

It is hard to overstate how far free and unlimited central bank liquidity has rewired the financial system. As central bankers extract themselves from the monetary rabbit hole they have burrowed their way into, the damage to traditional portfolios is likely to be considerable.

This tightening of monetary policy is happening because inflation has returned – with a vengeance. Central banks are lifting short-term interest rates at a brisk pace. But there is an additional danger for liquidation-prone markets: quantitative tightening (QT).

June 30, 2022

Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility. Equity markets are oversold and US core inflation has likely peaked. This should help markets stabilise and possibly recover over the second half of 2022, says Andrew Pease of Russell Investments.

Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility. We think equity markets are oversold, and believe US core inflation has likely peaked. In our view, this should help markets stabilise and possibly recover over the second half of 2022.

June 20, 2022

Investors face one of the most complex market environments in history, says Ruffer LLP investment director Alexander Chartres.

Investors face one of the most complex market environments in history.

Simultaneous shifts in the global energy system, geopolitics, demography, technology and much else besides promise a more inflation-prone and volatile world ahead. This brings with it elevated risks, but also potential rewards.

Amidst all the uncertainty, this presentation from Ruffer LLP Investment Director Alexander Chartres will examine what investors can have conviction about.

April 21, 2022

Inflation-linked bonds are a key defence in a world of deepening negative real yields, says Jasmine Yeo, investment manager at Ruffer LLP.

What was the real return on the US ten-year bond over the past two years? Flat? Down a little?

Wrong – down a lot. The bedrock of the balanced portfolio has delivered a real return of -20% over the past two years [1].

That’s the worst inflation-adjusted performance since 1981 [2].

Traditional balanced portfolios rely on equities and bonds fulfilling their roles – equities for good times, bonds to cushion the bad. But after a torrid three months for markets, investors are being forced to tear up the rulebook.

April 7, 2022

Events in Ukraine are to be seen, first, through the lens of humanity. Through the lens of finance, Russia’s invasion is having the same effect as Covid-19: it is accelerating trends which are already in place. And those trends are inflationary says Ruffer LLP chairman Jonathan Ruffer.

Events in Ukraine are to be seen, first, through the lens of humanity. Through the lens of finance, Russia’s invasion is having the same effect as Covid-19: it is accelerating trends which are already in place. And those trends are inflationary.

April 4, 2022

The Russia-Ukraine war adds to near-term growth risks for the global economy and will likely keep inflation elevated for longer. While uncertainty is high, equity markets are oversold and should recover if tensions ease in the coming months says Russell Investments’ global head of investment strategy Andrew Pease.

The Russia-Ukraine war adds to near-term growth risks for the global economy and will likely keep inflation elevated for longer. While uncertainty is high, equity markets are oversold and should recover if tensions ease in the coming months says Russell Investments’ global head of investment strategy Andrew Pease.


Key market themes

April 4, 2022

China’s bid for global power, climate change and the transition away from fossil fuels are three of the defining megatrends of our time. Collectively, they promise generational upheaval. But decades of peace and stability have left markets, politics, economies and societies complacent and vulnerable. It’s going to get bumpy says Ruffer LLP investment director Alexander Chartres.

China’s bid for global power, climate change and the transition away from fossil fuels are three of the defining megatrends of our time. Collectively, they promise generational upheaval. But decades of peace and stability have left markets, politics, economies and societies complacent and vulnerable. It’s going to get bumpy says Ruffer LLP investment director Alexander Chartres.

Note: This article was written in late 2021, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

October 1, 2021

The Covid-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening.

The Covid-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening.

Amid this backdrop, our outlook favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Key market themes

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