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volatility

April 4, 2022

China’s bid for global power, climate change and the transition away from fossil fuels are three of the defining megatrends of our time. Collectively, they promise generational upheaval. But decades of peace and stability have left markets, politics, economies and societies complacent and vulnerable. It’s going to get bumpy says Ruffer LLP investment director Alexander Chartres.

China’s bid for global power, climate change and the transition away from fossil fuels are three of the defining megatrends of our time. Collectively, they promise generational upheaval. But decades of peace and stability have left markets, politics, economies and societies complacent and vulnerable. It’s going to get bumpy says Ruffer LLP investment director Alexander Chartres.

Note: This article was written in late 2021, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

March 17, 2022

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards.

In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless.

March 3, 2022

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic says Ruffer’s chief investment officer Henry Maxey.

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic.

“Inflation is the endgame. Just brace for inflation volatility first.”

This was the punchline of my 2021 Ruffer Review article.

August 10, 2021

Is the global economy’s uneven recovery leading to more opportunities for equity managers? The answer: Yes, according to our latest quarterly report on equity managers.

Is the global economy’s uneven recovery leading to more opportunities for equity managers? The answer: Yes, according to our latest quarterly report on equity managers.

July 1, 2021

Four interlinked areas deserve the attention of long-term investors: greater geopolitical instability; the digital revolution; domestic political changes in the advanced economies; and the rise of environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations.

The coronavirus crisis has accelerated pre-existing tectonic shifts that are changing the world order.

Four interlinked areas deserve the attention of long-term investors: greater geopolitical instability; the digital revolution; domestic political changes in the advanced economies; and the rise of environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations.

June 17, 2021

“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the US economy will likely boom,” Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said in May 2021.

The number of companies raising prices in the United States is at a 35-year high.

“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the US economy will likely boom,” Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said in May 2021.

“This boom could easily run into 2023 because all the spending could extend well into 2023.”

May 20, 2021

Over the past five months investors put more money into equity funds than in the previous twelve years combined. It’s easy to see why.

Over the past five months investors put more money into equity funds than in the previous twelve years combined. It’s easy to see why.

There is a lot of spare money around. Central banks have flooded the economy with support and generous government subsidies have filled the gap for millions of individuals. Those who could, saved.

May 13, 2021

Providing loans to companies has historically been one of the main components of commercial banking activity and goes back hundreds of years. Today, private debt comes in many forms, but most commonly involves non-bank institutions making loans to private companies based on the cashflows generated by the respective business, or for the acquisition of a hard asset (eg, real estate) or acquiring existing loans on the secondary market.

Providing loans to companies has historically been one of the main components of commercial banking activity and goes back hundreds of years. Today, private debt comes in many forms, but most commonly involves non-bank institutions making loans to private companies based on cashflows generated by the respective business, or for the acquisition of a hard asset (eg, real estate) or acquiring existing loans on the secondary market.

March 31, 2021

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

Investors’ great fear

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